Modelling A.I. in Economics

REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Security indices are the main tools for evaluation of the status of financial markets. Moreover, a main part of the economy of any country is constituted of investment in stock markets. Therefore, investors could maximize the return of investment if it becomes possible to predict the future trend of stock market with appropriate methods. The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of financial series make their prediction complicated. This study seeks to evaluate the prediction power of machine-learning models in a stock market. (Henrique, B.M., Sobreiro, V.A. and Kimura, H., 2019. Literature review: Machine learning techniques applied to financial market prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 124, pp.226-251.) We evaluate Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the REFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

REFI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of REFI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of REFI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

REFI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock

  1. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  2. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  3. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
  4. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the REFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 7837
Market Risk8769
Technical Analysis3671
Fundamental Analysis3141
Risk Unsystematic5579

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 748 signals.

References

  1. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  2. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  3. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  4. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  5. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  6. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  7. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for REFI stock?
A: REFI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is REFI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes REFI Stock.
Q: Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of REFI stock?
A: The consensus rating for REFI is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for REFI stock?
A: The prediction period for REFI is (n+1 year)



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