Modelling A.I. in Economics

SELB Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. (Parray, I.R., Khurana, S.S., Kumar, M. and Altalbe, A.A., 2020. Time series data analysis of stock price movement using machine learning techniques. Soft Computing, 24(21), pp.16509-16517.) We evaluate Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SELB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. Can statistics predict the future?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

SELB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SELB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SELB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SELB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SELB Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock

  1. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  2. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
  4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SELB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for SELB Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba2
Operational Risk 7372
Market Risk5590
Technical Analysis3057
Fundamental Analysis5369
Risk Unsystematic4253

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 541 signals.

References

  1. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  2. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  4. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  5. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  6. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
  7. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SELB stock?
A: SELB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is SELB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SELB Stock.
Q: Is Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Selecta Biosciences Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SELB stock?
A: The consensus rating for SELB is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for SELB stock?
A: The prediction period for SELB is (n+8 weeks)

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