Modelling A.I. in Economics

SELF Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using external indicators, such as commodity prices and currency exchange rates, in predicting movements. The performance of each technique is evaluated using different domain specific metrics. A comprehensive evaluation procedure is described, involving the use of trading simulations to assess the practical value of predictive models, and comparison with simple benchmarks that respond to underlying market growth.(Nelson, D.M., Pereira, A.C. and De Oliveira, R.A., 2017, May. Stock market's price movement prediction with LSTM neural networks. In 2017 International joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN) (pp. 1419-1426). Ieee.) We evaluate Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SELF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Trust metric by Neural Network
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. What is neural prediction?

SELF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SELF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SELF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SELF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SELF Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock

  1. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
  2. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  3. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
  4. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SELF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

SELF Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosCBa2
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 738 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  2. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  3. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  4. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  5. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  6. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
  7. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SELF stock?
A: SELF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is SELF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SELF Stock.
Q: Is Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Global Self Storage Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SELF stock?
A: The consensus rating for SELF is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SELF stock?
A: The prediction period for SELF is (n+6 month)

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