Modelling A.I. in Economics

SISI Shineco Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Shineco Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

The stock market is an interesting industry to study. There are various variations present in it. Many experts have been studying and researching on the various trends that the stock market goes through. One of the major studies has been the attempt to predict the stock prices of various companies based on historical data. Prediction of stock prices will greatly help people to understand where and how to invest so that the risk of losing money is minimized.(Naeini, M.P., Taremian, H. and Hashemi, H.B., 2010, October. Stock market value prediction using neural networks. In 2010 international conference on computer information systems and industrial management applications (CISIM) (pp. 132-136). IEEE.) We evaluate Shineco Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SISI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

SISI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Shineco Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SISI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SISI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SISI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SISI Shineco Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Shineco Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.
  2. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
  3. If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
  4. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Shineco Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SISI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for SISI Shineco Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 3643
Market Risk4357
Technical Analysis8768
Fundamental Analysis7342
Risk Unsystematic6634

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 517 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  2. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  3. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  6. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  7. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SISI stock?
A: SISI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is SISI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SISI Stock.
Q: Is Shineco Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Shineco Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SISI stock?
A: The consensus rating for SISI is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for SISI stock?
A: The prediction period for SISI is (n+1 year)

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