Modelling A.I. in Economics

SPE^C Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C (Forecast)

Outlook: Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend.(Sen, J. and Chaudhuri, T.D., 2018, December. Stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning frameworks. In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Business Analytics and Intelligence, Bangalore, India (pp. 20-22).) We evaluate Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SPE^C stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. Reaction Function
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

SPE^C Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SPE^C stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SPE^C stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SPE^C Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SPE^C Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C

  1. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
  2. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  3. When an entity first applies this Standard, it may choose as its accounting policy to continue to apply the hedge accounting requirements of IAS 39 instead of the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard. An entity shall apply that policy to all of its hedging relationships. An entity that chooses that policy shall also apply IFRIC 16 Hedges of a Net Investment in a Foreign Operation without the amendments that conform that Interpretation to the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard.
  4. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SPE^C stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for SPE^C Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 5132
Market Risk5358
Technical Analysis6784
Fundamental Analysis6538
Risk Unsystematic8479

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 529 signals.

References

  1. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  3. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  5. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  6. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SPE^C stock?
A: SPE^C stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is SPE^C stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SPE^C Stock.
Q: Is Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SPE^C stock?
A: The consensus rating for SPE^C is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SPE^C stock?
A: The prediction period for SPE^C is (n+3 month)

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