Modelling A.I. in Economics

SXC SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system.(Kohara, K., Ishikawa, T., Fukuhara, Y. and Nakamura, Y., 1997. Stock price prediction using prior knowledge and neural networks. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management, 6(1), pp.11-22.) We evaluate SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SXC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

SXC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SXC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SXC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SXC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SXC SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock

  1. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)
  2. If changes are made in addition to those changes required by interest rate benchmark reform to the financial asset or financial liability designated in a hedging relationship (as described in paragraphs 5.4.6–5.4.8) or to the designation of the hedging relationship (as required by paragraph 6.9.1), an entity shall first apply the applicable requirements in this Standard to determine if those additional changes result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting. If the additional changes do not result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting, an entity shall amend the formal designation of the hedging relationship as specified in paragraph 6.9.1.
  3. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  4. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SXC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for SXC SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Operational Risk 6631
Market Risk8035
Technical Analysis8285
Fundamental Analysis3534
Risk Unsystematic4354

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 810 signals.

References

  1. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  2. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  3. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  4. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  5. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  6. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  7. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SXC stock?
A: SXC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is SXC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SXC Stock.
Q: Is SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SunCoke Energy Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SXC stock?
A: The consensus rating for SXC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for SXC stock?
A: The prediction period for SXC is (n+8 weeks)

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