AC Investment Research

TSO TESORO GOLD LTD Research Report

Outlook: TESORO GOLD LTD assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

The stock market prediction patterns are seen as an important activity and it is more effective. Hence, stock prices will lead to lucrative profits from sound taking decisions. Because of the stagnant and noisy data, stock market-related forecasts are a major challenge for investors. Therefore, forecasting the stock market is a major challenge for investors to use their money to make more profit. Stock market predictions use mathematical strategies and learning tools.(Anand, C., 2021. Comparison of stock price prediction models using pre-trained neural networks. Journal of Ubiquitous Computing and Communication Technologies (UCCT), 3(02), pp.122-134.) We evaluate TESORO GOLD LTD prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TSO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Trading Interaction

TSO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TESORO GOLD LTD Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TSO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TSO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TSO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TSO TESORO GOLD LTD
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TESORO GOLD LTD

  1. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  2. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  3. To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.
  4. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TESORO GOLD LTD assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TSO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

TSO TESORO GOLD LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB2
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 504 signals.

References

  1. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  2. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  3. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  4. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  5. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  7. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TSO stock?
A: TSO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is TSO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TSO Stock.
Q: Is TESORO GOLD LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TESORO GOLD LTD is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TSO stock?
A: The consensus rating for TSO is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for TSO stock?
A: The prediction period for TSO is (n+6 month)

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