VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock Research Report

Abstract

Outlook: Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Signal: Sell
Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

Stock market prediction is a crucial and challenging task due to its nonlinear, evolutionary, complex, and dynamic nature. Research on the stock market has been an important issue for researchers in recent years. Companies invest in trading the stock market. Predicting the stock market trend accurately will minimize the risk and bring a maximum amount of profit for all the stakeholders. During the last several years, a lot of studies have been done to predict stock market trends using Traditional, Machine learning and deep learning techniques. (Khan, W., Ghazanfar, M.A., Azam, M.A., Karami, A., Alyoubi, K.H. and Alfakeeh, A.S., 2020. Stock market prediction using machine learning classifiers and social media, news. Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing, pp.1-24.) We evaluate Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VAC stock.

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Market Signals
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

VAC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of VAC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VAC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VAC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VAC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock

1. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
2. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
3. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.
4. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VAC stock.

Financial State Forecast for VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba2
Operational Risk	66	34
Market Risk	53	90
Technical Analysis	53	61
Fundamental Analysis	61	74
Risk Unsystematic	30	86

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 705 signals.

References

1. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
2. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
3. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold FTNT Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
6. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
7. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VAC stock?
A: VAC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is VAC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VAC Stock.
Q: Is Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VAC stock?
A: The consensus rating for VAC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for VAC stock?
A: The prediction period for VAC is (n+1 year)

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