AC Investment Research

AGI:TSX Alamos Gold Inc. Research Report

Outlook: Alamos Gold Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 09 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Alamos Gold Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AGI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. Trading Interaction
  3. Operational Risk

AGI:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Alamos Gold Inc. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AGI:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AGI:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AGI:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AGI:TSX Alamos Gold Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 09 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Alamos Gold Inc.

  1. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  2. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
  3. An entity that first applies these amendments after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.32–7.2.34. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Alamos Gold Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Alamos Gold Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AGI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

AGI:TSX Alamos Gold Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B1
Balance SheetCaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowB1B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 600 signals.

References

  1. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  6. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  7. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AGI:TSX stock?
A: AGI:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is AGI:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AGI:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Alamos Gold Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alamos Gold Inc. is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AGI:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for AGI:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AGI:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for AGI:TSX is (n+4 weeks)

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