**Outlook:**Altimmune Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Buy

**Time series to forecast n: 26 Jan 2023**for (n+8 weeks)

**Methodology :**Statistical Inference (ML)

## Abstract

Altimmune Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression^{1,2,3,4}and it is concluded that the ALT stock is predictable in the short/long term.

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

## Key Points

- Game Theory
- Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
- Why do we need predictive models?

## ALT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Altimmune Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ALT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Polynomial Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ALT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ALT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**ALT Altimmune Inc. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 26 Jan 2023**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Altimmune Inc. Common Stock

- To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.
- Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
- Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
- In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Altimmune Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Altimmune Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression^{1,2,3,4} and it is concluded that the ALT stock is predictable in the short/long term. ** According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

### ALT Altimmune Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba1 |

Income Statement | Baa2 | Baa2 |

Balance Sheet | Caa2 | Baa2 |

Leverage Ratios | Baa2 | Baa2 |

Cash Flow | C | Ba3 |

Rates of Return and Profitability | C | B3 |

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.

How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
- Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
- J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
- Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
- P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
- A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ALT stock?A: ALT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression

Q: Is ALT stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ALT Stock.

Q: Is Altimmune Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Altimmune Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of ALT stock?

A: The consensus rating for ALT is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for ALT stock?

A: The prediction period for ALT is (n+8 weeks)

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