Outlook: AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

## Abstract

AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ASRV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Nash Equilibria
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

## ASRV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASRV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASRV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ASRV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASRV AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock

1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
2. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
3. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
4. For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ASRV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### ASRV AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 701 signals.

## References

1. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
2. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
3. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
4. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
5. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
6. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
7. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASRV stock?
A: ASRV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is ASRV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASRV Stock.
Q: Is AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AmeriServ Financial Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASRV stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASRV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASRV stock?
A: The prediction period for ASRV is (n+1 year)