AC Investment Research

CHCT Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 13 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CHCT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Operational Risk
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

CHCT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CHCT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CHCT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CHCT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CHCT Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 13 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock

  1. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  2. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  3. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  4. An example of a fair value hedge is a hedge of exposure to changes in the fair value of a fixed-rate debt instrument arising from changes in interest rates. Such a hedge could be entered into by the issuer or by the holder.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CHCT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CHCT Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1Baa2
Balance SheetBa3B2
Leverage RatiosCBa3
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 866 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  3. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  5. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  6. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CHCT stock?
A: CHCT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is CHCT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CHCT Stock.
Q: Is Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CHCT stock?
A: The consensus rating for CHCT is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CHCT stock?
A: The prediction period for CHCT is (n+6 month)

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