AC Investment Research

CRD/A Crawford & Company Research Report

Outlook: Crawford & Company is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Crawford & Company prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CRD/A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Probability Distribution
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

CRD/A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Crawford & Company Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CRD/A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CRD/A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CRD/A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CRD/A Crawford & Company
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Crawford & Company

  1. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  2. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
  3. To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.
  4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Crawford & Company is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Crawford & Company prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CRD/A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CRD/A Crawford & Company Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowB2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 553 signals.

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  2. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  3. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  5. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  6. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  7. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CRD/A stock?
A: CRD/A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is CRD/A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CRD/A Stock.
Q: Is Crawford & Company stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Crawford & Company is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CRD/A stock?
A: The consensus rating for CRD/A is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CRD/A stock?
A: The prediction period for CRD/A is (n+1 year)

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