Modelling A.I. in Economics

DS^B Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B (Forecast)

Outlook: Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

Stock market trading is an activity in which investors need fast and accurate information to make effective decisions. Since many stocks are traded on a stock exchange, numerous factors influence the decision-making process. Moreover, the behaviour of stock prices is uncertain and hard to predict. For these reasons, stock price prediction is an important process and a challenging one.(Chaigusin, S., Chirathamjaree, C. and Clayden, J., 2008, September. Soft computing in the forecasting of the stock exchange of Thailand (SET). In 2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology (pp. 1277-1281). IEEE.) We evaluate Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DS^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

DS^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DS^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DS^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DS^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DS^B Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B

  1. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
  2. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
  3. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DS^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

DS^B Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 755 signals.

References

  1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  2. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  3. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  4. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  5. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  6. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  7. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DS^B stock?
A: DS^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is DS^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DS^B Stock.
Q: Is Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Drive Shack Inc. Preferred Series B is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DS^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for DS^B is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for DS^B stock?
A: The prediction period for DS^B is (n+1 year)

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