Modelling A.I. in Economics

EXP Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 30 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. Is now good time to invest?
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?

EXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of EXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EXP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EXP Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 30 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
  2. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
  3. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.
  4. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

EXP Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB3Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 614 signals.

References

  1. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  2. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  4. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  6. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  7. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EXP stock?
A: EXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is EXP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes EXP Stock.
Q: Is Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EXP stock?
A: The consensus rating for EXP is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for EXP stock?
A: The prediction period for EXP is (n+1 year)

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