Outlook: First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 27 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FCF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
3. Can machine learning predict?

## FCF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FCF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FCF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## FCF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 27 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock

1. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
2. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
3. The fact that a derivative is in or out of the money when it is designated as a hedging instrument does not in itself mean that a qualitative assessment is inappropriate. It depends on the circumstances whether hedge ineffectiveness arising from that fact could have a magnitude that a qualitative assessment would not adequately capture.
4. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FCF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetB3Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCB2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 690 signals.

## References

1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
2. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
3. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
4. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FCF stock?
A: FCF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is FCF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FCF Stock.
Q: Is First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FCF stock?
A: The consensus rating for FCF is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FCF stock?
A: The prediction period for FCF is (n+1 year)