Modelling A.I. in Economics

GLH GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 04 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GLH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

GLH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of GLH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GLH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GLH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GLH GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 04 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED

  1. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  2. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
  3. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
  4. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GLH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

GLH GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B2
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 626 signals.

References

  1. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  2. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
  3. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  4. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  5. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  6. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., MO Stock Price Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GLH stock?
A: GLH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is GLH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GLH Stock.
Q: Is GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GLOBAL HEALTH LIMITED is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GLH stock?
A: The consensus rating for GLH is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GLH stock?
A: The prediction period for GLH is (n+4 weeks)

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