Modelling A.I. in Economics

LLC LENDLEASE GROUP

Outlook: LENDLEASE GROUP is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 06 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

LENDLEASE GROUP prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LLC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. How do you pick a stock?

LLC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LENDLEASE GROUP Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LLC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LLC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LLC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LLC LENDLEASE GROUP
Time series to forecast n: 06 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for LENDLEASE GROUP

  1. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.
  2. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
  3. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  4. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

LENDLEASE GROUP is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. LENDLEASE GROUP prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LLC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

LLC LENDLEASE GROUP Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBa1C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 461 signals.

References

  1. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  2. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LLC stock?
A: LLC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LLC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LLC Stock.
Q: Is LENDLEASE GROUP stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LENDLEASE GROUP is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LLC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LLC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LLC stock?
A: The prediction period for LLC is (n+1 year)

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