Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:BIG BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC

Outlook: BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

The study of financial markets has been addressed in many works during the last years. Different methods have been used in order to capture the non-linear behavior which is characteristic of these complex systems. The development of profitable strategies has been associated with the predictive character of the market movement, and special attention has been devoted to forecast the trends of financial markets. (Hegazy, O., Soliman, O.S. and Salam, M.A., 2014. A machine learning model for stock market prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1402.7351.) We evaluate BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BIG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. Stock Rating

LON:BIG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BIG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BIG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BIG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BIG BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC

  1. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  2. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).
  4. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BIG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:BIG BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetBaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 671 signals.

References

  1. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  2. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  3. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  7. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BIG stock?
A: LON:BIG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:BIG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:BIG Stock.
Q: Is BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BIG TECHNOLOGIES PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BIG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BIG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BIG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BIG is (n+16 weeks)

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