Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:COM COMPTOIR GROUP PLC

Outlook: COMPTOIR GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 03 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

COMPTOIR GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:COM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LON:COM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider COMPTOIR GROUP PLC Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:COM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:COM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:COM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:COM COMPTOIR GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 03 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for COMPTOIR GROUP PLC

  1. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
  2. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  3. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  4. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

COMPTOIR GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. COMPTOIR GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:COM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:COM COMPTOIR GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCaa2B1
Leverage RatiosCBa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 492 signals.

References

  1. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  2. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:COM stock?
A: LON:COM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:COM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:COM Stock.
Q: Is COMPTOIR GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for COMPTOIR GROUP PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:COM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:COM is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:COM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:COM is (n+3 month)

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