AC Investment Research

MBH MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD Research Report

Outlook: MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. Operational Risk
  3. What is neural prediction?

MBH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MBH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MBH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MBH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MBH MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD

  1. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  2. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
  3. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.
  4. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

MBH MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosB1C
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 651 signals.

References

  1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  3. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  6. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  7. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MBH stock?
A: MBH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is MBH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell MBH Stock.
Q: Is MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LTD is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MBH stock?
A: The consensus rating for MBH is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for MBH stock?
A: The prediction period for MBH is (n+6 month)

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