DVN Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock

Outlook: Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : SellWait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 11 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DVN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellWait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. Nash Equilibria
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

DVN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of DVN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DVN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DVN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DVN Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 11 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellWait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock

1. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
2. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
3. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
4. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DVN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellWait until speculative trend diminishes

DVN Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	C	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 840 signals.

References

1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
2. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
4. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you decide buy or sell a stock?(SAIC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
7. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for DVN stock?
A: DVN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is DVN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellWait until speculative trend diminishes DVN Stock.
Q: Is Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock is SellWait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DVN stock?
A: The consensus rating for DVN is SellWait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for DVN stock?
A: The prediction period for DVN is (n+16 weeks)

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