Outlook: HilleVax Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 21 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

HilleVax Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HLVX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

## HLVX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HilleVax Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HLVX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HLVX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HLVX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HLVX HilleVax Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 21 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for HilleVax Inc. Common Stock

1. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
2. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
3. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
4. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

HilleVax Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. HilleVax Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HLVX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### HLVX HilleVax Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB1Ba3
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 860 signals. ## References

1. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
2. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
3. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
4. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
5. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
6. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
7. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HLVX stock?
A: HLVX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is HLVX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HLVX Stock.
Q: Is HilleVax Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HilleVax Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HLVX stock?
A: The consensus rating for HLVX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for HLVX stock?
A: The prediction period for HLVX is (n+3 month)