Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:CMRS CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC

Outlook: CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 10 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:CMRS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. Reaction Function
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

LON:CMRS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CMRS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CMRS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:CMRS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CMRS CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC

  1. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
  2. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
  3. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:CMRS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:CMRS CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetB3B2
Leverage RatiosCaa2B2
Cash FlowBa3B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 875 signals.

References

  1. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  2. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  3. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  4. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  5. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  6. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  7. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CMRS stock?
A: LON:CMRS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:CMRS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CMRS Stock.
Q: Is CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CAERUS MINERAL RESOURCES PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CMRS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CMRS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CMRS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CMRS is (n+1 year)

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