Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:EDGH EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC

Outlook: EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 21 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:EDGH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

LON:EDGH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:EDGH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:EDGH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:EDGH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:EDGH EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC
Time series to forecast n: 21 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC

  1. An example of a fair value hedge is a hedge of exposure to changes in the fair value of a fixed-rate debt instrument arising from changes in interest rates. Such a hedge could be entered into by the issuer or by the holder.
  2. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
  3. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:EDGH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

LON:EDGH EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Ba1
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCC

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 723 signals.

References

  1. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  2. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  3. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  4. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  5. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  6. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  7. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:EDGH stock?
A: LON:EDGH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:EDGH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes LON:EDGH Stock.
Q: Is EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EDGE PERFORMANCE VCT PLC is BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:EDGH stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:EDGH is BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:EDGH stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:EDGH is (n+3 month)



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