LON:JMI JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

Outlook: JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:JMI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Is Target price a good indicator?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

LON:JMI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:JMI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:JMI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:JMI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:JMI JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

1. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
2. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
3. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
4. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:JMI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:JMI JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Caa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	Baa2
Cash Flow	C	Ba3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 569 signals.

References

1. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., MO Stock Price Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
3. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
4. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
5. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
6. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
7. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:JMI stock?
A: LON:JMI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:JMI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:JMI Stock.
Q: Is JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JPMORGAN UK SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:JMI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:JMI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:JMI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:JMI is (n+6 month)

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