Modelling A.I. in Economics

RNR^F RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share

Outlook: RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : SellBuy
Time series to forecast n: 14 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the RNR^F stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

RNR^F Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of RNR^F stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RNR^F stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RNR^F Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RNR^F RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share
Time series to forecast n: 14 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share

  1. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
  2. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  3. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  4. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the RNR^F stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy

RNR^F RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosCB2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 641 signals.

References

  1. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  4. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  5. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  7. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for RNR^F stock?
A: RNR^F stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is RNR^F stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy RNR^F Stock.
Q: Is RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Depositary Shares each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a 5.750% Series F Preference Share is SellBuy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RNR^F stock?
A: The consensus rating for RNR^F is SellBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for RNR^F stock?
A: The prediction period for RNR^F is (n+4 weeks)

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