Modelling A.I. in Economics

SVM:TSX Silvercorp Metals Inc.

Outlook: Silvercorp Metals Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 14 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Silvercorp Metals Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SVM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

SVM:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Silvercorp Metals Inc. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SVM:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SVM:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SVM:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SVM:TSX Silvercorp Metals Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 14 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Silvercorp Metals Inc.

  1. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  2. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  3. Measurement of a financial asset or financial liability and classification of recognised changes in its value are determined by the item's classification and whether the item is part of a designated hedging relationship. Those requirements can create a measurement or recognition inconsistency (sometimes referred to as an 'accounting mismatch') when, for example, in the absence of designation as at fair value through profit or loss, a financial asset would be classified as subsequently measured at fair value through profit or loss and a liability the entity considers related would be subsequently measured at amortised cost (with changes in fair value not recognised). In such circumstances, an entity may conclude that its financial statements would provide more relevant information if both the asset and the liability were measured as at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Silvercorp Metals Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Silvercorp Metals Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SVM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

SVM:TSX Silvercorp Metals Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B3
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 628 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you know when a stock will go up or down?(STJ Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
  4. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  6. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  7. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SVM:TSX stock?
A: SVM:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is SVM:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SVM:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Silvercorp Metals Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Silvercorp Metals Inc. is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SVM:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for SVM:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SVM:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for SVM:TSX is (n+4 weeks)

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