Modelling A.I. in Economics

AUPH Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares (Forecast)

Outlook: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 30 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AUPH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. Reaction Function
  3. Investment Risk

AUPH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AUPH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AUPH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AUPH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AUPH Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 30 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares

  1. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  2. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
  3. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
  4. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AUPH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

AUPH Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Ba3
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowCB2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 489 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  2. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  3. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  4. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  5. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  6. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  7. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AUPH stock?
A: AUPH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is AUPH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AUPH Stock.
Q: Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc Ordinary Shares is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AUPH stock?
A: The consensus rating for AUPH is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AUPH stock?
A: The prediction period for AUPH is (n+8 weeks)

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