Modelling A.I. in Economics

DX Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 29 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. Is now good time to invest?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

DX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DX Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 29 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  2. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
  3. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  4. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

DX Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Ba1
Balance SheetB3B1
Leverage RatiosCBa2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 821 signals.

References

  1. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  2. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  3. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  4. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  5. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  6. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  7. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DX stock?
A: DX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is DX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DX Stock.
Q: Is Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DX stock?
A: The consensus rating for DX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for DX stock?
A: The prediction period for DX is (n+16 weeks)

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