Modelling A.I. in Economics

FUV Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 21 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FUV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

FUV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FUV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FUV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FUV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FUV Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 21 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock

  1. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
  2. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  3. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  4. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FUV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

FUV Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3Ba3
Balance SheetB2B2
Leverage RatiosB1B2
Cash FlowBaa2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 550 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  2. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold AQN Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  6. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  7. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FUV stock?
A: FUV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is FUV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FUV Stock.
Q: Is Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Arcimoto Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FUV stock?
A: The consensus rating for FUV is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for FUV stock?
A: The prediction period for FUV is (n+16 weeks)

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