Modelling A.I. in Economics

GDO Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (Forecast)

Outlook: Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 26 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GDO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. Can statistics predict the future?

GDO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of GDO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GDO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GDO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GDO Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 26 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc.

  1. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
  2. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
  3. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  4. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GDO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

GDO Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCC

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 596 signals.

References

  1. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  2. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  4. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  5. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  6. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  7. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GDO stock?
A: GDO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is GDO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GDO Stock.
Q: Is Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GDO stock?
A: The consensus rating for GDO is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GDO stock?
A: The prediction period for GDO is (n+16 weeks)

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