Outlook: ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 13 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

## Abstract

ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AUSC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## LON:AUSC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AUSC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AUSC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:AUSC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AUSC ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 13 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC

1. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
2. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
3. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
4. A contractual cash flow characteristic does not affect the classification of the financial asset if it could have only a de minimis effect on the contractual cash flows of the financial asset. To make this determination, an entity must consider the possible effect of the contractual cash flow characteristic in each reporting period and cumulatively over the life of the financial instrument. In addition, if a contractual cash flow characteristic could have an effect on the contractual cash flows that is more than de minimis (either in a single reporting period or cumulatively) but that cash flow characteristic is not genuine, it does not affect the classification of a financial asset. A cash flow characteristic is not genuine if it affects the instrument's contractual cash flows only on the occurrence of an event that is extremely rare, highly abnormal and very unlikely to occur.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AUSC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### LON:AUSC ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCC
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosB2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 759 signals.

## References

1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
2. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
3. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
4. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
5. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
6. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
7. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AUSC stock?
A: LON:AUSC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is LON:AUSC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:AUSC Stock.
Q: Is ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ABRDN UK SMALLER COMPANIES GROWTH TRUST PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AUSC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AUSC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AUSC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AUSC is (n+8 weeks)