PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock

Outlook: Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 05 Mar 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Market Outlook
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

PVBC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PVBC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PVBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PVBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 05 Mar 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock

1. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
2. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang
3. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
4. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	C	B1
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Ba3
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	B1
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 620 signals.

References

1. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
2. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
3. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
4. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
5. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PVBC stock?
A: PVBC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is PVBC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes PVBC Stock.
Q: Is Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PVBC stock?
A: The consensus rating for PVBC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for PVBC stock?
A: The prediction period for PVBC is (n+3 month)

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