Modelling A.I. in Economics

TANNZ TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 (Forecast)

Outlook: TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 28 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TANNZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. What is neural prediction?

TANNZ Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TANNZ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TANNZ stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TANNZ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TANNZ TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030
Time series to forecast n: 28 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030

  1. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  2. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.
  3. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  4. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TANNZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

TANNZ TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCB2
Leverage RatiosB3Ba2
Cash FlowBa3C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 557 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  2. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  3. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  6. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TANNZ stock?
A: TANNZ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is TANNZ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TANNZ Stock.
Q: Is TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TravelCenters of America Inc. 8.00% Senior Notes due 2030 is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TANNZ stock?
A: The consensus rating for TANNZ is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TANNZ stock?
A: The prediction period for TANNZ is (n+8 weeks)

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