AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060

Outlook: American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

AFGD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFGD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFGD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AFGD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060

1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
2. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
3. The fact that a derivative is in or out of the money when it is designated as a hedging instrument does not in itself mean that a qualitative assessment is inappropriate. It depends on the circumstances whether hedge ineffectiveness arising from that fact could have a magnitude that a qualitative assessment would not adequately capture.
4. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Ba2	Ba3
Balance Sheet	Ba2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba2	Caa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 746 signals.

References

1. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
2. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
3. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
4. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
5. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
6. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you know when a stock will go up or down?(STJ Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AFGD stock?
A: AFGD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is AFGD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFGD Stock.
Q: Is American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFGD stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFGD is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AFGD stock?
A: The prediction period for AFGD is (n+1 year)

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