Outlook: Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 02 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

## Abstract

Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DAVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. Why do we need predictive models?

## DAVA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DAVA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DAVA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## DAVA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share)
Time series to forecast n: 02 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share)

1. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
2. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.
3. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
4. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DAVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa2Ba1
Balance SheetBa3Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB3B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 560 signals.

## References

1. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
2. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
3. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
4. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
5. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
6. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
7. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DAVA stock?
A: DAVA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is DAVA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DAVA Stock.
Q: Is Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DAVA stock?
A: The consensus rating for DAVA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for DAVA stock?
A: The prediction period for DAVA is (n+16 weeks)