Modelling A.I. in Economics

FCFS FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FCFS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

FCFS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FCFS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FCFS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FCFS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FCFS FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock

  1. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  2. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
  3. When an entity, consistent with its hedge documentation, frequently resets (ie discontinues and restarts) a hedging relationship because both the hedging instrument and the hedged item frequently change (ie the entity uses a dynamic process in which both the hedged items and the hedging instruments used to manage that exposure do not remain the same for long), the entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component is separately identifiable—only when it initially designates a hedged item in that hedging relationship. A hedged item that has been assessed at the time of its initial designation in the hedging relationship, whether it was at the time of the hedge inception or subsequently, is not reassessed at any subsequent redesignation in the same hedging relationship.
  4. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FCFS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

FCFS FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetB2Ba2
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 664 signals.

References

  1. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  2. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  3. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  6. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  7. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FCFS stock?
A: FCFS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is FCFS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FCFS Stock.
Q: Is FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FirstCash Holdings Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FCFS stock?
A: The consensus rating for FCFS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for FCFS stock?
A: The prediction period for FCFS is (n+1 year)

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