Modelling A.I. in Economics

FWRD Forward Air Corporation Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Forward Air Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

Forward Air Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FWRD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

FWRD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Forward Air Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FWRD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FWRD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FWRD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FWRD Forward Air Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Forward Air Corporation Common Stock

  1. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.
  2. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
  3. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
  4. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Forward Air Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Forward Air Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FWRD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

FWRD Forward Air Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetB3Baa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 678 signals.

References

  1. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  2. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  4. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  5. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  7. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FWRD stock?
A: FWRD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is FWRD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes FWRD Stock.
Q: Is Forward Air Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Forward Air Corporation Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FWRD stock?
A: The consensus rating for FWRD is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for FWRD stock?
A: The prediction period for FWRD is (n+16 weeks)

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