Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:AFP AFRICAN PIONEER PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: AFRICAN PIONEER PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 15 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

AFRICAN PIONEER PLC prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AFP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. Trading Signals
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

LON:AFP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AFRICAN PIONEER PLC Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AFP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AFP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AFP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AFP AFRICAN PIONEER PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for AFRICAN PIONEER PLC

  1. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods only if it is possible to do so without the use of hindsight. If an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all the requirements in this Standard for the affected financial instruments. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  3. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
  4. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

AFRICAN PIONEER PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. AFRICAN PIONEER PLC prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AFP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:AFP AFRICAN PIONEER PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowBa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 597 signals.

References

  1. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  2. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  4. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  5. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  6. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  7. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AFP stock?
A: LON:AFP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:AFP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:AFP Stock.
Q: Is AFRICAN PIONEER PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AFRICAN PIONEER PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AFP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AFP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AFP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AFP is (n+16 weeks)

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