Outlook: COSTAIN GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 30 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

## Abstract

COSTAIN GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:COST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

## Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

## LON:COST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider COSTAIN GROUP PLC Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:COST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:COST stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:COST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:COST COSTAIN GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 30 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for COSTAIN GROUP PLC

1. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
2. For the avoidance of doubt, the effects of replacing the original counterparty with a clearing counterparty and making the associated changes as described in paragraph 6.5.6 shall be reflected in the measurement of the hedging instrument and therefore in the assessment of hedge effectiveness and the measurement of hedge effectiveness
3. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
4. Sales that occur for other reasons, such as sales made to manage credit concentration risk (without an increase in the assets' credit risk), may also be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows. In particular, such sales may be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if those sales are infrequent (even if significant in value) or insignificant in value both individually and in aggregate (even if frequent). If more than an infrequent number of such sales are made out of a portfolio and those sales are more than insignificant in value (either individually or in aggregate), the entity needs to assess whether and how such sales are consistent with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows. Whether a third party imposes the requirement to sell the financial assets, or that activity is at the entity's discretion, is not relevant to this assessment. An increase in the frequency or value of sales in a particular period is not necessarily inconsistent with an objective to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, if an entity can explain the reasons for those sales and demonstrate why those sales do not reflect a change in the entity's business model. In addition, sales may be consistent with the objective of holding financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if the sales are made close to the maturity of the financial assets and the proceeds from the sales approximate the collection of the remaining contractual cash flows.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

COSTAIN GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. COSTAIN GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:COST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

### LON:COST COSTAIN GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCCaa2
Balance SheetCBa1
Leverage RatiosCB3
Cash FlowB3C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 637 signals.

## References

1. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
2. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
3. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
4. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
6. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
7. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:COST stock?
A: LON:COST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is LON:COST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:COST Stock.
Q: Is COSTAIN GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for COSTAIN GROUP PLC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:COST stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:COST is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:COST stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:COST is (n+8 weeks)