Modelling A.I. in Economics

PFH Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 (Forecast)

Outlook: Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PFH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. Nash Equilibria

PFH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PFH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PFH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PFH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PFH Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060

  1. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
  2. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
  3. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.
  4. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PFH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

PFH Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1C
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 475 signals.

References

  1. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  2. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you decide buy or sell a stock?(SAIC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  6. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  7. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PFH stock?
A: PFH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is PFH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PFH Stock.
Q: Is Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Prudential Financial Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PFH stock?
A: The consensus rating for PFH is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PFH stock?
A: The prediction period for PFH is (n+1 year)

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