Modelling A.I. in Economics

CBAY CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 23 May 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CBAY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Investment Risk
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

CBAY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CBAY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBAY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CBAY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CBAY CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 23 May 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock

  1. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  2. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
  3. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
  4. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CBAY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CBAY CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB1
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 872 signals.

References

  1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  2. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
  3. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  4. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  5. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  6. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  7. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CBAY stock?
A: CBAY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is CBAY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CBAY Stock.
Q: Is CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CBAY stock?
A: The consensus rating for CBAY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CBAY stock?
A: The prediction period for CBAY is (n+16 weeks)



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