Modelling A.I. in Economics

JPM^J J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG (Forecast)

Outlook: J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JPM^J stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

JPM^J Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of JPM^J stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JPM^J stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JPM^J Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JPM^J J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG

  1. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
  2. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
  3. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  4. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JPM^J stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

JPM^J J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3C
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosB2B1
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 812 signals.

References

  1. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  2. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  3. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  5. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  6. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JPM^J stock?
A: JPM^J stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is JPM^J stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy JPM^J Stock.
Q: Is J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JPM^J stock?
A: The consensus rating for JPM^J is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for JPM^J stock?
A: The prediction period for JPM^J is (n+1 year)

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