Outlook: ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 02 May 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

## Abstract

ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ABD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. What is prediction model?
3. Probability Distribution

## LON:ABD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ABD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ABD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:ABD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ABD ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 02 May 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

1. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
2. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.
3. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
4. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ABD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### LON:ABD ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 593 signals. ## References

1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
2. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
3. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
4. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
5. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
7. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ABD stock?
A: LON:ABD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:ABD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ABD Stock.
Q: Is ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ABRDN NEW DAWN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ABD stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ABD is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ABD stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ABD is (n+1 year)