Buy or Sell: BF.B Stock


Abstract

We evaluate Brown–Forman (Class B) prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BF.B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BF.B stock.


Keywords: BF.B, Brown–Forman (Class B), stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

BF.B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Brown–Forman (Class B) Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BF.B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BF.B stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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BF.B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BF.B Brown–Forman (Class B)
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BF.B stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Brown–Forman (Class B) assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BF.B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BF.B stock.

Financial State Forecast for BF.B Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 7985
Market Risk6560
Technical Analysis3390
Fundamental Analysis3972
Risk Unsystematic7090

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 466 signals.

References

  1. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  2. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  3. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  5. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  6. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BF.B stock?
A: BF.B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is BF.B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BF.B Stock.
Q: Is Brown–Forman (Class B) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Brown–Forman (Class B) is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BF.B stock?
A: The consensus rating for BF.B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BF.B stock?
A: The prediction period for BF.B is (n+8 weeks)

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