## Abstract

**We evaluate FIRSTGROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the LON:FGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FGP stock.**

**LON:FGP, FIRSTGROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Stock Rating
- Market Risk
- What are main components of Markov decision process?

## LON:FGP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FIRSTGROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FGP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Beta)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FGP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:FGP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**LON:FGP FIRSTGROUP PLC

**Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022**for (n+3 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FGP stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

FIRSTGROUP PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the LON:FGP stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FGP stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for LON:FGP Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Caa2 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 33 | 57 |

Market Risk | 43 | 55 |

Technical Analysis | 40 | 79 |

Fundamental Analysis | 36 | 37 |

Risk Unsystematic | 48 | 79 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
- Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FGP stock?A: LON:FGP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta

Q: Is LON:FGP stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FGP Stock.

Q: Is FIRSTGROUP PLC stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for FIRSTGROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FGP stock?

A: The consensus rating for LON:FGP is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FGP stock?

A: The prediction period for LON:FGP is (n+3 month)