Can neural networks predict stock market? (EMN Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Eastman Chemical Company prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EMN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EMN stock.

Keywords: EMN, Eastman Chemical Company, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

EMN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Eastman Chemical Company Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of EMN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EMN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EMN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EMN Eastman Chemical Company
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EMN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Eastman Chemical Company assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EMN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EMN stock.

Financial State Forecast for EMN Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	Ba3
Operational Risk	89	65
Market Risk	86	71
Technical Analysis	70	51
Fundamental Analysis	75	68
Risk Unsystematic	75	59

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 729 signals.

References

1. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
2. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
3. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
4. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
5. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
6. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
7. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EMN stock?
A: EMN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is EMN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EMN Stock.
Q: Is Eastman Chemical Company stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eastman Chemical Company is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EMN stock?
A: The consensus rating for EMN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EMN stock?
A: The prediction period for EMN is (n+8 weeks)

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