Can neural networks predict stock market? (PM Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Philip Morris International prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PM stock.

Keywords: PM, Philip Morris International, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Market Outlook
3. Dominated Move

PM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Philip Morris International Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of PM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PM Philip Morris International
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Philip Morris International assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PM stock.

Financial State Forecast for PM Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B3
Operational Risk	52	46
Market Risk	68	40
Technical Analysis	33	81
Fundamental Analysis	80	30
Risk Unsystematic	57	41

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 840 signals.

References

1. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
2. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
3. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
4. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
5. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
6. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
7. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PM stock?
A: PM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is PM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PM Stock.
Q: Is Philip Morris International stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Philip Morris International is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PM stock?
A: The consensus rating for PM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PM stock?
A: The prediction period for PM is (n+16 weeks)

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