Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (IEX Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate IDEX prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX stock.

Keywords: IEX, IDEX, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Operational Risk

IEX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider IDEX Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of IEX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IEX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IEX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IEX IDEX
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

IDEX assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX stock.

Financial State Forecast for IEX Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Operational Risk	80	42
Market Risk	53	85
Technical Analysis	56	41
Fundamental Analysis	73	43
Risk Unsystematic	53	51

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 652 signals.

References

1. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
2. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
3. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
4. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
5. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
6. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
7. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IEX stock?
A: IEX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is IEX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX Stock.
Q: Is IDEX stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IDEX is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IEX stock?
A: The consensus rating for IEX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for IEX stock?
A: The prediction period for IEX is (n+16 weeks)

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