## Abstract

**We evaluate IDEX prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the IEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX stock.**

**IEX, IDEX, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
- Operational Risk

## IEX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider IDEX Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of IEX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Spearman Correlation)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IEX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## IEX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**IEX IDEX

**Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

IDEX assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the IEX stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for IEX Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 80 | 42 |

Market Risk | 53 | 85 |

Technical Analysis | 56 | 41 |

Fundamental Analysis | 73 | 43 |

Risk Unsystematic | 53 | 51 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
- Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
- Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
- A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
- Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
- Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IEX stock?A: IEX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation

Q: Is IEX stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IEX Stock.

Q: Is IDEX stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for IDEX is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of IEX stock?

A: The consensus rating for IEX is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for IEX stock?

A: The prediction period for IEX is (n+16 weeks)

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